posted and discussions here: Mavic 2 hits Helicopter
i do and review a lot of risk assessments, and people tend to forget that there are two parts to a risk assessment “probability of occurrence” and “harm of occurrence”
obviously we tend to focus on the harm of occurrence being “death” most of the time, but if someone asked you what the probability of that occurrence was for a drone being hit by a fixed / rotating wing aircraft what would you assess?
5: Highly Likely. Risks in the highly likely category are almost certain to occur. Typically, risks with 91 percent or more likelihood fall into this category.
4: Likely. A likely risk has a 61-90 percent chance of occurring. These risks need regular attention, as they are bound to reoccur and therefore require a consistent mitigation strategy.
3: Possible. Possible risks may happen about half the time — they have a 41-60 percent chance of occurring and need attention.
2: Unlikely. Risks in the unlikely category have a relatively low chance of occurring — 11 to 40 percent. But they may still affect your business, so it’s a good idea to keep an eye on them.
1: Highly Unlikely. Highly unlikely risks are exactly as they sound, with a low probability of occurring.
here is one just out of curiousity… is anyone aware of any aircraft being brought down by a drone (actually crashed, not landed after the event and damaged, such as the above helicopter, and other aircraft with dents and scrapes)
I’m not being a drone accident denier, I am genuinely interested in the occurrence.
Please note we are also talking the sub 1kg done category here… not a reaper or some other military purpose drone (or something with a IED / grenade strapped to it!)
What could happen is very different to what does happen, that’s not to say we should let it happen to demonstrate it’s impact, but the greatest risk to aviation seems to be (besides pilot error + weather) … bird strike… (always happy to be correct as I’m not a pilot!)
don’t see campaigns for birds to have RID affixed to them so we know where the flocks are so aviation can avoid migrating birds…